One Nation is after a state seat on the outskirts of Perth. What happens next may re-shape Australian politics

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Aug 23, 2026 · 960 words · By Narelle Miragliotta

Electoral Volatility Political Strategy Rise of One Nation

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What to know about Electoral Volatility

The article analyzes the upcoming byelection in the Western Australian seat of Secret Harbour, triggered by the resignation of Paul Papalia. It examines the electoral prospects and strategic challenges facing the Labor, Liberal, and One Nation parties within the context of shifting political demographics.

Propaganda risk 20%

Claims checked 15

Techniques found 1

Topics 3

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center88%

Right12%

8 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Where once a byelection for a state seat would have attracted little national attention, the remaking of the Australian political landscape in recent months has given such contests greater significance.

Why it matters

The next such byelection is on August 29 in the Western Australian state seat of Secret Harbour, triggered by the resignation of Labor government minister Paul Papalia.

Common ground

Papalia had represented the seat, and its predecessor electorates, since 2007.

Perspective signals

The tension in the story is sharpened by Loaded Language: language that can make the dispute feel more urgent, personal, or adversarial than the underlying facts alone.

Follow-up questions

What new context would change how readers understand this Electoral Volatility story?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that One Nation... gained just 8.4% of the primary vote at the 2025 state election?
How does this story connect Electoral Volatility with Political Strategy over the next few days?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/one-nation-is-after-a-state-seat-on-the-outskirts-of…

analyticsAnalysis

20%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Minor concerns. Some persuasive language detected, but largely factual.

psychologyPropaganda Techniques Detected

eFinder identified 1 propaganda technique in this article. These signals explain how wording, emphasis, or missing context can shape a reader's interpretation.

warning

Loaded Language 80% confidence

Using words with strong emotional connotations to influence an audience.

Found in this article: eFinder flagged this technique because the story's framing or source language may guide readers toward a particular interpretation. Review the claim checks and evidence below to separate what is directly supported from what is implied by wording or emphasis.

Why it matters: Recognizing loaded language helps readers compare the article's framing with the underlying facts and with coverage from other sources.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 15 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

check_circle Corroborated 6

schedule Pending 5

verified Verified By Reference 2

info Single Source 2

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Claim 1: “One Nation... gained just 8.4% of the primary vote at the 2025 state election”

CORROBORATED

Although the 'evidence gathered' section for claim 9 says 'No evidence found', the evidence provided for claim 5 explicitly contains a web search result stating 'One Nation took 8.4%' of the primary vote at the 2025 election.

schedule

Claim 2: “when the Liberals contested Secret Harbour in 2025, they won a 9.8% swing in their first-preference vote”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 3: “the 28.5% swing recorded against its primary vote at the 2025 state election”

CORROBORATED

The Guardian and other web search results specifically mention a 28.5% swing against Labor's primary vote at the 2025 state election.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Secret Harbour is an outer southern suburb of the metropolitan area of Perth, the capital city of Western Australia, located within the City of Rockingham on the Indian Ocean coast at Warnbro Sound. D…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secret_Harbour,_Western_Austra…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — A by-election was held on 29 August 2026 to elect the member of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly for the electorate of Secret Harbour, following the resignation of minister Paul Papalia bec…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Secret_Harbour_state_by-e…

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Secret Harbour is an electoral district of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly. Secret Harbour is located in outer-metropolitan Perth, covering the vast majority of the former seat of Warnbro,…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electoral_district_of_Secret_H…

+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 4: “triggered by the resignation of Labor government minister Paul Papalia”

CORROBORATED

Multiple sources, including Wikipedia and web search results, confirm the byelection was triggered by the resignation of Labor minister Paul Papalia due to family issues.

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wikipedia NEUTRAL — Paul Papalia CSC (born 12 July 1962) is an Australian retired politician. He served as a Labor Party member of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly from February 2007 until his retirement in Ju…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Papalia

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 5: “Papalia had represented the seat, and its predecessor electorates, since 2007”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia explicitly states that Paul Papalia served as a Labor Party member of the Western Australian Legislative Assembly from February 2007 until July 2026.

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 6: “Turning Point Australia, a licensed franchise of Turning Point USA... has registered a how-to-vote card that supports One Nation”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 7: “The next such byelection is on August 29 in the Western Australian state seat of Secret Harbour”

CORROBORATED

Multiple independent sources, including The Conversation and Wikipedia, confirm the byelection for the seat of Secret Harbour was held on August 29 (2026).

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Luke Herdegen (born 1986 or 1987) is an Australian politician serving as the member for Secret Harbour in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly. A member of One Nation, he won the seat at the 20…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luke_Herdegen

menu_book

+ 2 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 8: “Labor... vote at the 2025 state election (46.6%)”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

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Claim 9: “the party’s two-party preferred vote averaging around 60%”

CORROBORATED

The Guardian and other web search results explicitly state that the Labor party's two-party preferred vote in the area averages around 60%.

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+ 3 more evidence sources

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Claim 10: “One Nation has established a branch in the overlapping federal electorate of Canning, currently held by Liberal Andrew Hastie”

CORROBORATED

Multiple web search results confirm One Nation established a branch in the federal electorate of Canning, which is held by Liberal MP Andrew Hastie.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Andrew William Hastie (born 30 September 1982) is an Australian politician and former military officer who has served as Deputy Leader of the Opposition in the House of Representatives and Deputy Lead…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Hastie

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Liberal MP for Canning Andrew Hastie, left, and One Nation's Western Australian leader Rod Caddies, who opened the party's Canning branch in Mandurah on Saturday.
https://www.onenewsaustralia.com/one-nation-canning-branch-a…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — One Nation has already established a branch in Canning and made clear it intends to challenge Hastie at the next federal election. The Secret Harbour result does not mean Canning will automatically fo…
https://sport.brownsburgweek.com/one-nations-secret-harbour-…

info

Claim 11: “The Liberals are fielding a candidate”

SINGLE SOURCE

The provided web search results for this specific claim are irrelevant (Reddit/Pornhub links) and do not confirm whether the Liberals fielded a candidate.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Reddit is a network of communities where people can dive into their interests, hobbies and passions. There's a community for whatever you're interested in on Reddit.
https://www.reddit.com/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — r/Pornhub is for sharing pornhub content only. This includes direct links to pornhub videos and gifs with link credit in the comments. Advertising any other sites will result in removal. Multiple viol…
https://www.reddit.com/r/Pornhub/rising/

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — This subreddit is all about ass movement, existing for over 200 years with many origins. East African dances like Tanzania baikoko, Somali niiko, Malagasy kawitry, Afro-Arab M'alayah, and Central Afri…
https://www.reddit.com/r/twerk/

verified

Claim 12: “Secret Harbour is an outer metropolitan seat on the southern coastal outskirts of Perth”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

Wikipedia describes the electoral district of Secret Harbour as located in outer-metropolitan Perth, and another Wikipedia entry describes Secret Harbour as an outer southern suburb of Perth on the Indian Ocean coast.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Learn about Secret deodorants and antiperspirants. Find the best product for your odor protection needs at secret.com.
https://secret.com/en-us

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 6 days ago · The meaning of SECRET is kept from knowledge or view : hidden. How to use secret in a sentence. Synonym Discussion of Secret.
https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/secret

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The best bras, panties, lingerie, apparel, and swimsuits (bikinis, one-pieces). Shop your favorite clothing from PJs and activewear to perfume and accessories.
https://www.victoriassecret.com/us/

info

Claim 13: “the 16-strong field – nine more than at the 2025 state election”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result mentions 16 candidates contesting the seat, but the specific comparison that this is 'nine more than at the 2025 state election' is only found in one source (the web search result referencing the 16-strong field).

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Sixteen candidates are contesting the seat, a record for a Western Australian by election, and Murrell counts himself among the 13 who were passed over.
https://www.onenewsaustralia.com/secret-harbour-by-election-…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Secret Harbour was first contested at the 2025 state election with a notional margin for the Labor Party of 31.3%.The last day for receipt of postal votes is 3 September at 9 am.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Secret_Harbour_state_by-e…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Secret Harbour byelection has the potential for an electoral upset, given the many characteristics conducive to a One Nation win.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/commentisfree/202…

schedule

Claim 14: “reports it is spending $300,000 on its local campaign”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 15: “Of the six official how-to-vote cards registered with the WA Electoral Commission, only Labor is recommending voters rank One Nation below both major parties”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.