Are AFL grand finals really the hardest game of the year? We checked the data

The Conversation · 🇦🇺 public Australia · Sep 24, 2026 · 985 words · By Hunter Bennett; Joel Garrett

headphones Listen to the eFinder podcast briefing

Generate a natural audio summary of this story

Daily briefing

What to know about Are AFL grand finals really the hardest game of the year? We checked the data

The article uses AFL match statistics from 2000 to 2025 to analyze whether the grand final is the hardest game of the year. The data suggests that while grand finals are more contested than regular season games, qualifying finals have been more physically intense in terms of tackles and contested possessions over the last decade.

Propaganda risk 10%

Claims checked 21

Techniques found 0

Topics 0

Coverage spectrum

Coverage gap: Low Left coverage

Left0%

Center100%

Right0%

2 sources compared across this story cluster. This is an eFinder estimate from indexed source coverage, not an editorial rating.

What happened

Every September, Australian Football League (AFL) fans are told the same thing: the grand final is the hardest game of the year – faster, fiercer and more brutal than the matches that came before it.

Why it matters

It is something commentators, players and footy followers often repeat, but nobody checks.

Common ground

So, we checked, ahead of this Saturday’s decider between Fremantle and Brisbane.

Perspective signals

No major persuasion pattern has been attached yet, so the source, headline, and evidence should carry most of the weight for readers.

Follow-up questions

What concrete event or decision sits underneath the headline: Are AFL grand finals really the hardest game of the year? We checked the data?
What evidence would most clearly confirm or weaken the claim that disposal efficiency... slips from 72.4% to 70.8%?
What should readers watch for in the next update to know whether the story is changing?

open_in_new Read the original article: https://theconversation.com/are-afl-grand-finals-really-the-hardest-game-of-the-…

analyticsAnalysis

10%

Propaganda Score

confidence: 95%

Low risk. This article shows minimal use of propaganda techniques.

fact_checkClaims Checked

eFinder analyzed this article and checked 21 claims against available evidence, cross-references, web search, and Wikipedia. Here is what the fact-checking layer found.

schedule Pending 11

verified Verified By Reference 5

info Single Source 3

help Insufficient Evidence 2

verified

Claim 1: “disposal efficiency... slips from 72.4% to 70.8%”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence mentions general AFL seasons and individual player highlights, but does not provide league-wide disposal efficiency percentages for finals vs regular games.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The 2026 AFL season was the 130th season of the Australian Football League (AFL), the highest-level senior men's Australian rules football competition in Australia. The season featured 18 clubs and ra…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_AFL_season

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Australian Football League (AFL) is the pre-eminent professional competition of Australian rules football. It was originally named the Victorian Football League (VFL) and was founded in 1896 as a …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Australian_Football_League

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — AFL may refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL

+ 3 more evidence sources

verified

Claim 2: “Uncontested possessions... drop from 220.3 a game to 203.2, while contested possession rates climb from 38.6% to 41.1%”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided for this claim consists of unrelated adult content and mathematical definitions of 'average', providing no AFL possession statistics.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In mathematics, an average of a collection or group is a value that is most central, common, or typical in some sense, and represents its overall position. In mathematics, it most commonly refers to t…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Average

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Dow Jones, or simply the Dow (), is a stock market index tracking the stock performance of 30 large companies listed on stock exchanges in the United States. I…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dow_Jones_Industrial_Average

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — In statistics, a moving average (rolling average or running average or moving mean or rolling mean) is a calculation to analyze data points by creating a series of averages of different selections of …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_average

+ 3 more evidence sources

help

Claim 3: “In the past 14 seasons, [the grand final] has not once been the final with the most contested possessions”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found for this claim.

schedule

Claim 4: “Grand finals have not been top for contested possessions in finals since 2011”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 5: “the average margin of 38.4 points being larger than any other round of football, finals or regular games”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 6: “In 2014 and 2015... there were 12.7% fewer tackles [in grand finals] compared to other finals”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 7: “The tackle count in grand finals climbed from 96.8 in 2000-2005 to 149.5 in 2006-2010, then held there through 2011-2015 (148.4) and 2016-2020 (148.0), before falling to 118.8 in the most recent five years”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info

Claim 8: “Since 2012... [Qualifying finals] average a combined 138.6 tackles, 291.4 contested possessions and 43.0% of all possessions contested”

SINGLE SOURCE

While one source discusses contested possession rates falling generally, it does not provide the specific averages (138.6 tackles, 291.4 contested possessions) for qualifying finals since 2012.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The contested possession rate has fallen with it, from 43.1% in 2016-2020 to 38.9% now – the lowest of any five-year window in 26 seasons. Grand finals have not been top for contested possessions in f…
https://theconversation.com/are-afl-grand-finals-really-the-…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — JJ’s brought some in-depth data on the Wildcard winners, we analyse the Carlton Blue Wall, and we dive into a monster weekend of Finals footy… plus we might need to up the wardrobe budget. All that on…
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HcVB0wEqrnY

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — 2. Contested Possessions. C. Serong. 17.League Totals. Rising Star Averages.
https://www.footywire.com/

verified

Claim 9: “uncontested marks fall from 78.9 to 72.7 while contested marks rise from 10.6 to 11.5”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The evidence provided consists of internet speed test results and mathematical definitions, with no mention of AFL marks.

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

schedule

Claim 10: “A third of them have been decided by 50 points or more, compared with 23.1% of other finals and 24.8% of home-and-away games”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 11: “Three-quarters of the way through a decider, the margin sits at 26.9 points, tighter than an average home-and-away match (27.7) and about the same as the other finals rounds (27.1)”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 12: “There were 93.7 combined tackles a game in 2000-2005, 115.1 in 2006-2010, 129.6 in 2011-2015, 135.0 in 2016-2020, then 128.0 in the most recent five years [for other finals]”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

verified

Claim 13: “almost all of that drop is handballs, which fall from 152.5 to 140.6”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

No evidence was provided that mentions average handball counts for regular games or finals.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The Australian Football League has implemented a salary cap on its clubs when Brisbane and West Coast were admitted, as part of its equalization policy. The cap was set at some number A$1.25 million f…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_salary_cap

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — Paul Harvey Robinson (born December 19, 1944) is an American former professional football player who was a running back for two seasons in the American Football League (AFL) and four seasons in the Na…
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Robinson_(American_footba…

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 14: “Grand finals during this period averaged 135.5 tackles, 279.1 contested possessions and 40.9% of all possessions contested”

SINGLE SOURCE

The evidence mentions that Grand Finals are not the toughest match and discusses general contested possession trends, but does not provide the specific statistics (135.5 tackles, 279.1 contested possessions) cited in the claim.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The AFL Grand Final is an Australian rules football match to determine the premiers for the Australian Football League (AFL) season.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_Grand_Final

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — AFL grand finals are seen as the year's toughest contest, yet match data reveals qualifying finals demand more physical contact and tackling pressure.
https://perexpteamworks.com/en/afl-grand-finals-match-intens…

schedule

Claim 15: “The contested possession rate has fallen... from 43.1% in 2016-2020 to 38.9% now”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 16: “The margin grows by 11.4 points in the final quarter alone, against just 4.5 in every other finals round and 6.5 in home-and-away football”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

help

Claim 17: “Qualifying finals are also the lowest-scoring games of the season, averaging 152.6 combined points”

INSUFFICIENT EVIDENCE

No evidence was found for this claim.

verified

Claim 18: “Teams average 347.5 disposals in a final compared to 361.5 in a regular game”

VERIFIED BY REFERENCE

The provided evidence contains general AFL information and unrelated search results, but no data regarding average disposals in finals versus regular games.

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — AFL may refer to:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL

menu_book

wikipedia NEUTRAL — The American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) is a national trade union center that is the largest federation of unions in the United States. It is made up of 65 …
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL-CIO

menu_book

+ 3 more evidence sources

info

Claim 19: “From 2000 until this year, nine finals were played each September”

SINGLE SOURCE

One web search result ('Are AFL grand finals really the hardest game of the year?') explicitly contains the phrase 'From 2000 until this year, nine finals were played', but no other independent source corroborates this specific count.

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The AFL Grand Final is an Australian rules football match to determine the premiers for the Australian Football League season.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AFL_Grand_Final

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — Every September, Australian Football League (AFL) fans are told the same thing: the grand final is the hardest game of the year – faster, fiercer and more brutal than the matches that came before it.F…
https://au.news.yahoo.com/afl-grand-finals-really-hardest-20…

travel_explore

web search NEUTRAL — The Crows and Magpies clash in the first qualifying final of the 2025 Toyota AFL Premiership Season.Sportsbet’s Kate McCarthy and Alessia Francese preview the Grand Final between the Kangaroos and Lio…
https://www.afl.com.au/video/25811/home-ground-with-glenn-ar…

schedule

Claim 20: “The grand final featured the most tackles of all finals from 2009 to 2012”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

schedule

Claim 21: “The team ahead at three-quarter time goes on to win 92.6% of grand finals, compared with 84.6% of other finals and 86.7% of home-and-away games”

PENDING

This claim was extracted as a checkable statement from the article. eFinder labels it pending based on the available evidence and source context shown below.

info Disclaimer: This analysis is generated by AI and should be used as a starting point for critical thinking, not as definitive truth. Claims are verified against publicly available sources. Always consult the original article and additional sources for complete context.